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Arthur Hayes predicts a market peak by mid-to-late March 2025, driven by a $57 billion liquidity injection despite political uncertainties. He highlights the correlation between Bitcoin's rise and the depletion of the Reverse Repo Facility, forecasting a temporary downturn in April due to tax payments, followed by a recovery in Q3. Hayes plans to increase exposure to risk assets, including decentralized science tokens, in the first quarter.
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, forecasts a Bitcoin peak by the end of Q1 2025, driven by a $612 billion liquidity injection from the Federal Reserve and Treasury. He highlights significant shifts in the Reverse Repo Facility and Treasury General Account as key factors fueling this rally, while also positioning investments in decentralized science tokens amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Cryptocurrency prices have sharply declined, with Bitcoin dropping over 4% to around $97,856, while Ethereum and Dogecoin fell by approximately 7%. The downturn follows unexpected job openings data in the U.S. and a shift in investor expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Liquidations surged, totaling $385 million in the past 24 hours, predominantly affecting long positions.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has revised his projections for the crypto market, predicting a peak in March. Despite earlier concerns about a potential downturn due to political factors, he now believes the market will continue its bullish trend, supported by an influx of dollar liquidity expected to add $612 billion in the first quarter. However, he warns that negative liquidity factors, such as tax deadlines in April, could lead to a bearish shift thereafter.
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, predicts that the crypto market will peak in mid to late March, followed by a significant correction. He believes that the anticipated "Trump dump" has already occurred and that increased dollar liquidity in early 2025 could create positive momentum for crypto. Hayes encourages risk-takers to invest in decentralized science projects while acknowledging his past prediction inaccuracies.
Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMex, predicts a peak in the crypto market by March, citing potential extreme measures by the US to avoid hitting the debt ceiling. He notes that Bitcoin bottomed in Q3 2022 and anticipates a significant correction ahead, driven by liquidity changes and Treasury actions. Despite contrasting views from other experts expecting a prolonged bull cycle, Hayes warns of a possible 76% liquidity depletion in the crypto market.
Arthur Hayes predicts a significant rally for Bitcoin in 2025, driven by China's anticipated interest rate cuts and the US Federal Reserve's low rate regime. The People's Bank of China's recent dovish policy aims to counter deflation and stimulate credit demand, potentially boosting cryptocurrency prices. Following the Fed's rate cut in September, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, highlighting its appeal amid global fiat debasement.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that a potential change in the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for US banks could significantly boost Bitcoin's price, possibly reaching $1 million. He highlights that this change would allow banks to leverage U.S. Treasury securities extensively, facilitating the funding of increasing US government debt. Hayes believes that the ongoing global monetary expansion will drive Bitcoin's value higher as central banks print unprecedented amounts of money to maintain economic stability.
Ethereum is showing signs of a potential rebound, aiming for a comeback to $3,300 after a recent decline from $4,109 to $3,095. Key indicators, including a rising Stock-to-Flow Ratio and a positive MVRV Z score, suggest increased scarcity and undervaluation, fostering bullish sentiment among investors. If momentum is maintained, Ethereum could target $3,700 and $3,900, although caution is advised as bearish forces remain present.
MicroStrategy acquired 5,262 Bitcoin between December 16-22, investing approximately $561 million at an average price of $106,662 per BTC, the highest cost to date. This purchase is part of a larger trend, with the firm acquiring 42,162 BTC in December alone, now valued at $4 billion. However, the latest buy marks a slowdown in their aggressive accumulation strategy, amid market caution regarding potential price drops in 2025.
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